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一项对实际资本利得的领域分析显示，2004年9月在墨尔本买房的人，如果现在买房，平均资本利得约为$ 36.4万。
在过去15年里，最好的买房时机是2005年12月，如果现在买房，平均每个房主的投资收益为$ 11万。
尽管普遍的观点是，市场中的时间比市场时机更重要，但研究指出，这段时间为墨尔本的购房者提供了最大的资本增长。
数据显示，在全球金融危机期间预期回报率开始下降之前，2006年12月当季之前的任何时候，平均买家的获利都将超过$ 35万。
对于那些在2012年(最近一轮繁荣开始之时)购房的人来说，回报也比2010年年中购房的人要高。
这项研究为一些人带来了好消息，但也显示，最近购房的房主如果需要在当前市场上出售房屋，他们更有可能遭受重大损失。
预计在2017年12月当季的峰值，买房者或购房者的损失将最大。在今天的市场上，他们平均每套房子可能会损失$ 9.2万，如果不得不出售的话，每套房子可能会损失$ 3.6万。
Aspire房产倡导者的负责人Nicholas Morrison说，尽管卖家现在仍能盈利，但一些人认为他们正在亏损，这可能意味着他们错过了赚钱的机会，因为没有在正确的时间出售。
他说，那些等待一个“神奇”的高峰或低谷日来卖出或买入的人可能会发现，他们这样做的时候已经太迟了。
Morrison表示:“对你的家人来说，最好的时间就是买房的最佳时机。” ，那些“亏本”出售房产的人，可以通过以折扣价升级到更大的房产来获得成功。
凯特·巴克斯房地产公司(Cate Bakos Property)的Cate Bakos表示，房地产投资是长期的，起伏永远是市场的一部分。
她鼓励她的卖主只在需要的时候出售，“尤其是如果你很久没有拥有这处房产了”。
妮可雅各布斯房地产公司(Nicole Jacobs Property)在墨尔本的买家代理Nicole Jacobs说，亏本销售的主要原因是经济压力、离婚或搬迁。
Jacobs表示:“他们只需要减少损失，继续前进。”
她说，那些在高峰时期买房的人通常希望在可能的情况下保住自己的房产。
她说:“每当你在一个上涨的市场买入，然后不得不卖出时，你就会受到市场的摆布。我们现在看到的下跌，就像我们在全球金融危机期间看到的一些房地产一样——但不是全面下跌。”
她说也有好的一面。不断下跌的市场环境催生了“交易买家”，他们在一处房产上登记亏损，以便在市场底部有现金购买另一处房产，预计房价将再次上涨。 “它们将受到轻微冲击，因为到那时它们就准备好购买低价商品，比如减价甩卖，然后等待下一轮上涨。”
在公寓市场上，Biggin和Scott的Michael Tynan说，在高层开发项目中，投资使用的单元房近年来没有升值。
他说，投资者正在减少损失。
Tynan表示:“在酒店式公寓里，千篇一律的一居室和两居室公寓里，他们才是真正在挣扎的人。”
这是墨尔本一连串高端房地产交易中的一宗，显示出房地产低迷的影响。在经历了5年的空前增长后，房地产价格出现了暴跌。
今年1月，位于New Street, Brighton的一套带有四间卧室的当代住宅以$208万的价格售出，尽管不到两年前的成交价就有$275万。
去年9月，Prior Road, Malvern East的一处老房子以$135万成交，比它在2016年末最后一次交易的价格低了$11.2万。
虽然出现了亏损，但一些更大的收益是供应商联合起来向开发商出售房产。在过去的几年里，South Yarra、Box Hill和Rowville的房主们已经将他们的土地集中出售以获取高额利润。
在墨尔本价格较高的区，利润也依然很高，在2018年下半年实现了一些可观的利润。
2016年，单笔房地产交易的最大利润之一或许就来自于此——这是富有的Daniel Besen和Danielle Besen在分居后出售的一处住宅。贝森夫妇2006年以 $555万的价格买下了 9 Towers Road, Toorak的这处房产，2016年又以 $2625万的天价售出。
但据报道，Besen夫妇在出售他们的四居室住宅之前，已经花费了 $2000万。
去年年底的拍卖会上，位于Yarraville的一套加州三居室平房以$134.2万的价格售出。公共记录显示，这栋房子上一次转手是在2004年，成交价为$38.8万。
在去年12月的拍卖后谈判中， East Melbourne 的另一处房产以250万的价格售出。公开记录显示，这栋排屋在2004年以98.75万的价格被买下。
墨尔本的售卖得利: 
9 Towers Road, Toorak 2006年9月以$555万购得
2016年12月以$2625万售出
收益: $2070万
138 Severn Street, Yarraville 2004年3月以$38.8万购得
2018年12月以$134.2万售出
收益: $954000
6 Grey Street, East Melbourne 2004年5月以$98.75万购得
2018年12月以$250万售出
收益: $1512500
亏本出售的墨尔本房屋: 
435 New Street, Brighton 该公司于2017年4月以$227.5万购得
2019年1月以$208万售出
损失: $195000
9 Prior Road, Malvern East 2016年11月以$124.7万购得
2018年9月以$113.5万售出
损失: $112000
610/681 Chapel Street, South Yarra 2015年6月以$72万购得
2018年12月以$68.5万售出
损失: $35000
Timing the Melbourne market: Figures show who has gained and lost the most in past 15 years
Those who bought a house in Melbourne in September 2004 are sitting on an average capital gain of some $364,000 if they sold now, a Domain analysis of real capital gains shows.
此文章出于 <ALLISON WORRALL, 03 Feb 2019>
And the best time to buy a unit in the past 15 years was December 2005, with an average owner making a gain of $110,000 on their investment if they sold now. Although a common view is that time in the market is more important than market timing, the research pinpoints the period that has offered the biggest capital growth to Melbourne home owners. The average buyer at any point before the December quarter of 2006 would be sitting on gains of more than $350,000, before the prospective returns started to drop off during the global financial crisis, the figures show. Returns are also brighter for those who bought during 2012, when the most recent boom began, than for buyers in mid-2010. The research offers good news for some, but also shows home owners who bought more recently were more likely to make a substantial loss if they needed to sell in the current market. The biggest loss was expected for those who bought a house or unit in the December quarter 2017 peak. In today’s market, they could expect to lose $92,000 for an average home or just over $36,000 for a unit if they had to sell. Director of Aspire Property Advocates Nicholas Morrison said even though vendors could still make a profit now, some had a perception they were making a loss which could mean they missed out on making money by not selling at the right time. He said those waiting for a “magic” peak or trough date to sell or buy could find themselves doing so when it was too late. “The best time to buy is when it’s the best time for your family,” Mr Morrison said. Mr Morrison said those “losing” money selling could get ahead by upgrading to a bigger property for a discounted price. Cate Bakos, of Cate Bakos Property, said property investment was for the long term and ups and downs would always be part of the market. She is encouraging her vendors only to sell when they need to, “especially if you haven’t owned the property for a long time”. Nicole Jacobs, a Melbourne buyers agent with Nicole Jacobs Property, said sales for a loss were being driven by financial stress, divorce or relocation. “They just need to cut their losses and move on,” Ms Jacobs said. She said those who bought at the peak would typically be hoping to hold on to their property if they could. “Whenever you buy in a rising market and have to sell, you’re at the mercy of the market,” she said, “and we are seeing drops like we did back in the global financial crisis with some properties – but it’s not across the board.” She said there was a bright side. Falling market conditions gave rise to “transaction buyers” who record a loss on one property so they have the cash to buy another at the bottom of the market, expecting prices to rise again. “They will take a slight hit because then they’re ready to buy something priced low, like a fire sale, and wait for the next upswing,” Ms Jacobs said. In the apartment market, Biggin and Scott’s Michael Tynan, the agent on a recent sale at 610/681 Chapel Street South Yarra which made a loss, said there were cases where investor-grade units in high-rise developments had not increased in value in recent years. He said investors were cutting their losses. “In the hotel-feeling apartment buildings, the cookie-cutter one and two-bedroom apartments, they’re the ones that are really struggling,” Mr Tynan said. It was one of a string of top-end transactions in Melbourne that illustrated the effects of the property downturn, which has seen prices tumble after five years of unprecedented growth. A contemporary four-bedroom residence in New Street, Brighton in January sold for $2.08 million, despite fetching $2.275 million less than two years earlier. It followed a sale in Prior Road, Malvern East, last September where a dated house on a large block went for $1.135 million – some $112,000 less than the last time it transacted in late 2016. While there have been losses, some of the bigger gains have been where vendors have banding together to sell properties to developers. Home owners in South Yarra, Box Hill and Rowville have pooled their land to sell for big profits in the past few years. Profits have also remained large in Melbourne’s pricier suburbs with some solid profits at the latter end of 2018. Perhaps one of the biggest profits for a single property sale was booked in 2016 – a residence owned by the wealthy Daniel and Danielle Besen who sold after their separation. The Besens had bought the property at 9 Towers Road, Toorak for $5.55 million in 2006, selling it in 2016 for a whopping $26.25 million. But the Besens had spent a reported $20 million building their four-bedroom manse before selling. In lower-profile examples of well-timed sales, a three-bedroom Californian bungalow in Yarraville sold for $1,342,000 at auction late last year. The home last changed hands in 2004 for $388,000, public records show. Another property in East Melbourne sold for $2.5 million in post-auction negotiations in December. Public records show the terrace house had been bought for $987,500 in 2004. Melbourne houses that sold for a gain: 9 Towers Road, Toorak Bought in September 2006 for $5.55 million Sold in December 2016 for $26.25 million Gain: $20.7 million 138 Severn Street, Yarraville Bought in March 2004 for $388,000 Sold in December 2018 for $1,342,000 Gain: $954,000 6 Grey Street, East Melbourne Bought in May 2004 for $987,500 Sold in December 2018 for $2.5 million Gain: $1,512,500 Melbourne homes that sold for a loss: 435 New Street, Brighton Bought in April 2017 for $2.275 million Sold in January 2019 for $2.08 million Loss: $195,000 9 Prior Road, Malvern East Bought in November 2016 for $1.247 million Sold in September 2018 for $1.135 million Loss: $112,000 610/681 Chapel Street, South Yarra Bought in June 2015 for $720,000 Sold in December 2018 for $685,000 Loss: $35,000
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