低碳航运系列 | 航运业的去碳化 到2050年航运业的温室气体排放量至少减少50%

航运业将遵照巴黎协定，并降低温室气体（GHG）排放量。2018年4月，国际海事组织通过了一项GHG减排战略，其愿景是在本世纪内尽快实现航运业的去碳化。目标是在2050年将航运业产生的温室气体总排放量与2008年相比至少减少50%，在2030年和2050年将平均碳强度(每吨英里的二氧化碳排放量)分别减少40%和70%。

减排50%是雄心勃勃的目标，除了包括减速在内的其它节能措施，它可能还要求广泛地采用零碳燃料。充分地降低排放是可能的，但也具有挑战性。许多解决方案还并不成熟，需要付出巨大努力，而不仅仅是渐进式的效率改善。

与气候相关的风险将是战略业务发展的关键。这不仅限于直接排放法规和资产的有形风险，还包括消费者偏好、技术以及能源供应的重大转变，这将影响航运资产的价值。

减排选项

目前已知和成熟的能效措施可以减少每艘船20- 30%的排放量，具体取决于船舶类型。这些措施不包括减速航行。未来的航运燃料需要达到零碳足迹，或近零碳足迹。中等至大范围的减速航行(20- 50%的减速)在技术上是可行的，但需要得到商业认可及物流系统的重组。

降低硫氧化物和氮氧化物的排放，以及压舱水处理将增加航运中的能源使用。压载水处理、蒸馏、洗涤器、催化剂和废气循环都是增加能源需求的措施。解决当地污染和外来物种转移是必要的，但随着时间的推移，重点将越来越多地放在温室效应气体上。未来的设计必须解决所有污染物的问题。

DNV GL认为，与2008年相比，到2050年航运业将二氧化碳排放量减少50%是雄心勃勃的目标。这将需要应用目前尚未成熟的技术和解决方案，接受较低的航速，并部署大量零碳燃料，或碳中性可持续燃料。

大幅度的减排将增加运输成本，如果成本太高，解决方案则将无法实施。实现减排的关键是开发解决方案，提高解决方案成熟度，及进一步升级解决方案，使其达到成本可接受的水平。法规应辅之以其他政策措施和激励措施，以推动技术发展和减排，同时确保航运活动不受限制。可能需要采取临时的折中机制，以允许灵活的合规手段，来确保最具成本效益的减排。

航运业的各个公司应该评估其与气候相关的风险，以避免不可预见的损失并抓住机遇。对于一家企业，气候风险既包括与气候变化相关的风险(物理风险)，也包括与向低碳经济转型相关的风险(转型风险)。转型风险包括政治/法律风险、技术风险、市场风险和声誉风险。

航运业不是唯一需要减少排放的领域，脱碳将是各个行业的全方位努力方向。金融稳定委员会(FSB)应20国集团(G20)的要求，于2015年成立了气候相关财务披露特别工作组，该工作组最近推出了公司气候相关财务披露建议，以支持投资者、贷款人和保险承保人理解相应的重大风险。这些建议向企业发出了一个明确的信号，即气候风险不再仅仅是一个非金融问题。DNV GL为船东提供关键洞察意见和咨询服务，以识别及应对这些气候风险。

Decarbonization of Shipping

GHG emissions from shipping to be reduced by at least by 50% in 2050

The shipping industry is expected to act upon the Paris Agreement and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In April 2018, the IMO adopted a GHG reduction strategy with a vision to decarbonize shipping as soon as possible within this century.  The aim is to reduce total GHG emissions from shipping at least by 50% in 2050, and to reduce the average carbon intensity (CO2 per tonne-mile) by 40% in 2030 and 70% in 2050, compared to 2008.

The 50% emission reduction is ambitious and will likely call for widespread uptake of zero-carbon fuels, in addition to other energy efficiency measures, including speed reduction. Sufficient reductions are possible but challenging.  Many solutions are not mature and will require major efforts, going beyond incremental efficiency improvements.

Climate-related risks will be a key strategic business issue moving forward. This is not limited to direct emission regulations and physical risks to assets, but entails major shifts in consumer preferences, technologies and energy supply, which will impact the value of shipping assets.

Reduction options

Currently known and mature energy efficiency measures can reduce emission per ship by 20 - 30%, dependent on ship type. This does not include speed reductions. Future fuels for shipping need to have a zero or near-zero carbon footprint. Moderate to extensive speed reduction (20 -50% reduction) is technically feasible but requires commercial acceptance and are structuring of the logistics system.

Reducing SOx and NOx emissions and treating ballast waterwill increase energy use in shipping. Ballast water treatment, distillates, scrubbers, catalyzers and exhaustgas circulation are all measures that increases energy need.  Addressing local pollution and transfer of alien species is necessary, but over time the emphasis will increasingly be on GHG.  All pollutants must be addressed in future designs.

DNV GL believes a trajectory for shipping resulting in a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 compared to 2008 is ambitious. It willrequire application of currently immature technology and solutions, acceptanceof lower speed and deployment of large volumes of zero-carbon or carbon-neutral sustainable fuels.

Significantly reducing emissions will increase cost of transportation, but solutions will not be applied if they are too costly.  The key to achieving reduction of emission is developing, maturing and scaling up solutions to a level where the cost is acceptable.  Regulations should be supplemented by other policy measures and incentives to drive technology development and emission reductions, while at the same time ensuring the shipping activity is not restricted. Temporary offset mechanisms may be needed to allow flexible means of compliance and ensure reductions where it is most cost-effective.

Individual companies in the shipping industry should assess climate-related risks, to prevent unforeseen losses and tap into opportunities.  Climate risks for an organisation include both risks related to a changing climate (physical risks) and risks related to the transition to a low-carbon economy (transition risks). Transition risks include political/legal risks, technology risks, market risksand reputational risks.

Shipping is not the only sector that has to reduce emissions, and decarbonization will be an all-encompassing effort for all sectors of the economy.  The Task Forceon Climate-related Financial Disclosures, created by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) at the request of the G20 in 2015, recently launched recommendations for climate-related financial disclosures by companies to support investors, lenders, and insurance under writers in understanding material risks.  The recommendations send a clear signal to companies that climate risks are no longer solely a non-financial issue. DNV GL supports ship owners with key insights and advisory services to identify and address these climate risks.

相关联系人：刘先生 Jason Liu:

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