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自由如鸟 本文英文部分选自经济学人Science and Technology版块 《想飞》 徐志摩 像鸟儿一样， 飞到云端里去。 凌空去看个明白， 这才是做人的趣味。 Passenger drones are a better kind of flying car 飞行汽车另一种更好的形式—载客无人机 Could the dream of soaring above the traffic come true? 在路面交通之上翱翔的美梦能否成真? TRAVELLERS have long envied the birds. In 1842 William Henson, a British lacemaker, somewhat optimistically filed a patent for an “aerial steam carriage”. It took another 60 years and the arrival of the internal combustion engine before Orville and Wilbur Wright flew the first practical aeroplane. In the 1920s Henry Ford began tinkering with the idea of making cars fly. “You may smile,” he said. “But it will come.” In 1970 his company considered marketing the Aerocar, one of the few flying-car designs that managed to gain an airworthiness certificate. 旅行者们一直羡慕鸟儿可以自由飞翔。1842年，英国的一位名叫威廉·亨森(William Henson)的工匠乐观地申请了“空中蒸汽马车”的专利。60年后（即1903年），奥威尔·莱特和威尔伯·莱特兄弟驾驶的以内燃机为动力的飞机成功上天（自此人类的飞天梦终于实现了）。上世纪20年代，亨利·福特开始捣鼓如何让汽车飞上天。“你可能会笑，”他说，“但它一定会来”。1970年，福特公司考虑生产销售Aerocar系列飞行汽车（但随后长达十年的石油危机使那些计划均告破灭。)，这是为数不多的成功获得适航证书的飞行汽车设计之一。 这应该是英国人约翰.Stingfellow 和威廉·亨森（Henson）于1842年联合设计的蒸气（马车）飞机。名字叫做“空中蒸汽车”。1840 年，英国航空先驱威廉·萨姆爱尔·亨森成立了自己的航空运输公司，并开始试制飞机。1842 年 9 月 29 日，亨森在助手约翰·斯特林·凡罗的协助下，参考了凯利的航空力学理论，设计出名为“空中蒸汽车”的飞机，并申请了“重于空气的飞行器”的专利。 Yet flying cars have never taken off. That is not because they are impossible to build, but because they are, fundamentally, a compromise, neither good on the road nor graceful in the sky. They are also inconvenient. Most designs require a runway to take off and land, and a pilot’s licence to operate. But that is changing. Developments in electric power, batteries and autonomous-flight systems have led to a boom in sales of small drone aircraft. Several entrepreneurs have had the idea of scaling up such machines to the point that people can fit inside them. The ultimate goal is a pilotless passenger drone that can either be parked outside your house like an ordinary car, or even summoned with a smartphone app, like a taxi. 然而，飞行汽车从未起飞，这并不是因为它们不可能建造，而是因为它们根本上是一种妥协，在道路上既不擅长，在空中也不优雅。而且他们也不方便。大多数设计需要跑道起飞和降落，以及飞行驾照。但这种情况正在改变。电力、电池和自主飞行系统的发展，导致小型无人机的销量激增。一些企业家已经有了这样的想法:把这种机器扩大到可以载人的程度，最终的目标是一架无人驾驶的载客飞机，它可以像普通汽车一样停在你的房子外面，甚至可以用智能手机应用召唤，就像出租车那样。 开车上天不是梦，首款飞行汽车预售60万http://www./news/20180309/173555820.shtml Dozens of firms are trying to build such machines. They include Workhorse, an American maker of electric vehicles; Joby Aviation, a Californian company whose backers include JetBlue Airways and Toyota; AeroMobil, a Slovakian company; and Lilium, a German firm working on an air taxi that uses jet-type electric thrusters. Some of their products are convincing enough to have attracted powerful backing. Lilium’s investors include Tencent, a giant Chinese investment firm. Larry Page, one of the co-founders of Google, has put his money into several such projects, including the Kitty Hawk Flyer, which the rider sits astride much like a flying motorcycle. Not to be left out, aircraft makers such as Boeing, Airbus and Bell Helicopter have also shown off in-house designs of their own. 数十家公司正试图建造这样的机器。其中包括美国电动汽车生产商Workhorse；加州的初创企业Joby Aviation, 其支持者包括捷蓝航空以及丰田公司；斯洛伐克公司AeroMobil；以及致力于电动喷气式空中出租车研发的德国公司Lilium。它们的一些产品具有足够的说服力吸引到了强有力的支持。Lilium的投资者包括中国的大型投资公司腾讯。谷歌的创始人之一拉里·佩奇（Larry Page），也已经投资了几个类似的项目，其中包括小鹰飞行器(Kitty Hawk Flyer)---驾驶员跨坐在上面好像是在驾驶着摩托车。（当然）必不可少的是，飞机制造商比如波音，空客以及贝尔直升机公司也都展示了一些他们自己的内部设计。 1.Joby Aviation：已经获得了英特尔、丰田和捷蓝航空的 1 亿美元融资，这笔钱将用于开发其空中出租的原型机 http://www.sohu.com/a/221228843_180520 2.Lillium：德国初创飞行器公司Lillium成立于2015年。2016年12月，该公司获得了伦敦风险投资公司Atomico的1070万美元的A轮融资。2017年9月已完成B轮9000万美元融资，此轮融资由中国互联网巨头腾讯牵头，列支敦士登王室拥有的欧洲最大家族投资公司LGT，欧洲顶级风投公司Atomico，以及推特联合创始人伊万·威廉姆斯（Evan Williams）创办的Obvious Ventures跟投。 https://www.iyiou.com/p/54572 3.Kitty Hawk Flyer:驾驶KittyHawk Flyer很容易让人联想到驾驶摩托车，和摩托车不同的地方就在于，KittyHawk Flyer并没有车轮，而是在底部装载了8个小型螺旋桨。 http://money.163.com/17/0503/08/CJGEA7Q2002580S6.html A vertical market 垂直市场 Some of the new flying machines are modern variations on the familiar flying-car design. One of the most advanced is the TF-X, developed by Terrafugia, a company from Massachusetts. The TF-X is based on the Transition, a petrol-engined car with foldable wings and a rear-mounted propeller. That machine is already flying and is due to go on sale next year. The TF-X is a plug-in hybrid that can drive but can also take off and land vertically, like a helicopter. Although it is several years away from making its first test flights, Terrafugia says the TF-X will be able to operate autonomously with four people on board for 800km (500 miles) at a cruising speed of 320kph. The idea has attracted interest from bigger firms. In 2017 Terrafugia was bought by Geely, a Chinese firm that also owns Volvo. 一些现代的飞行器都是对大家熟知的飞行汽车设计进行改进后的版本。其中最先进的一个叫做TF-X，是由一家来自马萨诸塞州的太力公司（Terrafugia)发明的。TF-X是基于飞行汽车Transition上设计的， Transition是一款靠汽油驱动，拥有可折叠机翼以及一个后置螺旋桨的飞行汽车。这种车已经开始试飞，预计明年投入市场。TF-X是一种插电式混合动力飞行汽车，它不仅可以像普通车一样驾驶，还能够垂直起飞和垂直降落，类似于直升机那样（Transition需要跑道进行滑行助跑）。公司表示，虽然距离首次试飞还有好几年，但是TF-X能够搭载4人，并且巡航速度可达每小时320公里，航程超过800公里（500英里），这个想法引起了大公司的兴趣。2017年，太力公司（Terrafugia)被吉利收购，这家中国公司同时拥有沃尔沃。 1.飞行汽车能不能缓解交通拥堵？http://www.sohu.com/a/223887731_100017003 2.吉利重磅宣布收购美国最大飞行汽车公司http://www.sohu.com/a/222718519_468668 The TF-X’s ability to do without a runway is a common feature of many of the new designs. Most conventional drones achieve this with a number of small, electrically powered rotors mounted on the corner of the vehicle, or on extended arms. Many of Terrafugia’s competitors, though, are abandoning the idea of flying machines that can also drive. Focusing on flight keeps things simple and helps save both money and weight. 很多新设计的共同特点是像TF-X一样不需要跑道起降。大多数传统的无人机需要在汽车的角落边或在延展的机翼上安装许多小型的电动旋翼来实现这一功能。然而，太力公司（Terrafugia）的许多竞争对手放弃了既可以飞行又可以驾驶的想法。只专注于飞行可以让事情变得简单，同时也有助于节省金钱和重量。 One example is Volocopter, a German firm which has attracted investment from Daimler, the parent company of Mercedes-Benz, and interest from Intel, a big American chipmaker. It has been flying prototypes of its 18-rotor autonomous taxi since 2016, when it was first granted a “permit to fly” by regulators. In 2017 it took Brian Krzanich, the chief executive of Intel, on a joyride inside an exhibition hall, with a pilot on the ground controlling the aircraft remotely. A short autonomous flight was carried out in Dubai last year, although no people were on board. This way, step-by-step, Florian Reuter, Volocopter’s chief executive, hopes to persuade regulators that passenger drones are safe enough for more ambitious flights and pilotless operations. 比如一家德国的公司Volocopter，吸引了梅赛德斯-奔驰的母公司戴姆勒和美国芯片巨头英特尔的投资。自从2016年被监管机构首次授予“飞行许可”开始，它一直使用18旋翼无人驾驶出租车原型机。2017年它搭载英特尔的执行总裁Brian Krzanich，在展览厅里面开始了一段愉快的飞行，这次飞行由一名飞行员在地面上远程遥控。去年，Volocopter在迪拜执行了一次短程的自主飞行，尽管没有搭载人员。Volocopter的执行总裁Florian Reuter希望这样一步步地说服监管机构，让他们相信载客无人机足够安全，可以开展更雄心的勃勃飞行和无人驾驶的操作。 For makers of passenger drones face legal hurdles as well as technical ones. Since obtaining its permit to fly, EHang, a dronemaker based in Guangzhou, has been putting its drone, the EHang 184 (shown above), through its paces. That has included flying at 130kph, climbing to 300 metres and operating in a storm. Huazhi Hu, EHang’s founder, says it will be necessary to demonstrate that the technology works before air-safety regulators come up with the necessary rules to allow commercial operations. To that end, EHang has got a representative on a technical experts’ committee for unmanned aerial vehicles, which has been set up by the Civil Aviation Administration of China to consider what those regulations should be. 载客无人机制造商除了面临技术难题之外，还要面对法规问题。自从获得飞行许可以来，总部位于广州的无人机制造商亿航就一直在测试 EHang 184的性能。其中包括飞行速度达到每小时130公里，高度爬上300米以及在暴风雨中操作等测试。公司创始人胡华智表示，在航空安全监管部门提出容许商业运行需要遵守的规则之前，有必要证明这项技术是可行的。为此，亿航公司还派了一名代表加入无人机专家委员会。该委员会由中国民航总局成立，木的是研究制定相关的法律法规。 The law of the sky 空中法规 Aviation regulators, understandably, tend to be risk-averse. That means that, although the eventual goal is fully autonomous flight, the first passenger drones are likely to be fitted with manual controls and to require some sort of pilot’s licence to operate—just as the first self-driving cars require licensed humans to keep their hands on the wheel at all times. But manufacturers and governments are already discussing how restrictions might be eased. Volocopter, for instance, is hoping that the European Aviation Safety Agency can be persuaded to classify its passenger drone as a “light sports aircraft”, which would mean that it can be flown by a person holding a simplified pilot’s licence which requires less training. 航空监管部门当然不愿意冒险。这就表示，虽然最终目标是彻底实现无人驾驶飞行，但是第一架载客无人机很有可能是由人工操纵，而且要求驾驶员持有飞行驾照，就像第一辆自动驾驶汽车要求有驾照的司机全程把手放在方向盘上。不过制造商和政府已经在讨论如何放宽限制条件。比如，Volocopter希望能够说服欧洲的航空安全部门将他们生产的乘用无人机列为”轻型运动飞机”，这样驾驶员只需要获得简化了的飞行执照，对飞行训练的要求也就更少。 Eventually, passenger drones may be classified as an entirely new type of aircraft. For that to happen, though, will require a number of changes to existing rules. For instance, most aircraft are supposed to carry enough spare fuel for 30 minutes of extra flying time in an emergency. For many of the current crop of electric passenger drones that rely solely on their own batteries, though, 30 minutes is around the limit of their endurance. 最后，载客无人机可能会被划分为一种全新类型的飞机。但是想要成功，还需要对现存的机制做大量的变革。比如，大多数飞机应该携带足够的备用燃料以防紧急情况下30分钟的额外飞行。对于许多只依靠电池来飞行的载客无人机，30分钟的续航时间已经是它们的飞行极限了。 Some dronemakers hope to persuade regulators that an emergency reserve could be found by running the batteries down completely. As with smartphones and electric cars, the lithium-ion batteries used in drones usually stop discharging when they are about 80% drained in order to protect themselves from damage. Another option might be to fly only at low altitudes, with pre-planned emergency landing points along the route. A final safeguard is an emergency parachute, which many designs already sport. 一些无人机制造商希望能说服监管机构，当电池完全用完时可以找到应急储备电量。与智能手机、电动汽车的电池一样，无人机使用的锂电池通常会在用掉快80%电量的时候便会停止放电，以避免设备损坏。另一种选择或许就是只在低空飞行，同时提前安排好在飞行路线中的紧急着陆点。最后一项保障是紧急降落伞，这个已经在许多设计中惹人注目地展示出来了。 Another problem is other aircraft. Self-flying drones will probably need specialised “sense and avoid” equipment to prevent collisions. Such systems do not yet exist, though they are being worked on by NASA, among others. Stephen Prior, a drone expert at the University of Southampton, in England, points out that air-traffic control will be another headache. Passenger drones are designed to fly directly from place to place, rather than making use of existing airfields, as conventional aircraft do. That would make the tricky job of directing airborne traffic even more complicated than it already is. The answer will probably involve handing at least part of the job to computers, but such systems are also some way off. 另一个问题是其他飞机。自主飞行无人机需要专门的“感应与躲避”设备以防相撞。这种系统还不存在，但NASA和其它机构正在研发中。是英国南安普敦大学的无人驾驶飞机专家Stephen Prior指出空中交通管制是另一个令人头痛的问题。载客无人机的设计初衷是可以在各地穿梭自如，而不是像传统飞机那样使用现有的飞机场。这将使指挥空中交通的工作难上加难。解决办法可能是至少让电脑处理一部分的工作，但是这种系统也还有很远的路要走。 The final issue is price. At least at first, passenger drones will cost supercar money: mooted prices tend to be around $200,000-300,000. That, combined with the requirement to have at least some form of pilot’s licence, will limit demand, at least at first. But as with all technology, if the machines prove popular, their prices will fall, especially once autonomous operations are routine. These new machines may not look like the flying cars that Henry Ford imagined, but he was right. Their time may, at last, have come. 最后一个问题在于价格。至少在初期，载客无人机将与超跑价格一样贵：售价可能会在20万到30万美金左右。而且至少获得某种形式的飞行执照也会在一开始限制市场需求。然而，与所有的科技一样，如果这些载客无人机很受欢迎，尤其是在无人驾驶操作变得习以为常时，他们的价格就会下降。这些新的载客无人机可能不像亨利.福特所想象的飞行汽车那样，但他是对的。飞行汽车的时代终于到来了。 翻译组： Frank，男，小硕，经济学人爱好者 Minjia，女，广告策划，经济学人读者 Yifei：女，英专硕士，专八，catti二笔 Joel，男，数据分析，科技类外刊爱好者 Helga，女，笔译民工，经济学人爱好者 Grace , 女，市场公关，经济学人爱好者 校核组： Ellen, 女, 行政，经济学人爱好者 LitFish ，女，药物制剂，Nature追随者 3 观点 |评论|思考 看完今天的文章，你会发现各路大佬都纷纷进入载客无人机行业，那么这几路大佬到底是谁呢？ 第一路是很多老牌汽车制造商，文中提到的福特，丰田，戴姆勒，吉利等等，这里小编主要想扯扯吉利公司，曾几何时，相信很多人对吉利的印象都一般般，甚至是比较差，车子造型和性能都很一般，再到后来的惊人之举，收购了沃尔沃，但是一直有人吐槽吉利玷污了沃尔沃这个品牌，再到前段时间关于它入股戴姆勒公司的新闻也是炒的沸沸扬扬，再到今天文中提到沃尔沃母公司吉利在去年11月收购了飞行汽车公司Terrafugia，不得不说吉利的这一步步都挺让人诧异的，这也让小编对吉利的印象有了比较大的改观，看到了民族汽车品牌的未来，正所谓英雄不问出处，小编由衷希望吉利能在未来的载客无人机领域占有一席之地。 第二路是互联网公司，文中提到的腾讯领领投的Lilium，不得不说腾讯作为亚洲最有钱的公司，真的是不差钱。这里小编曾经认为互联网公司在自动驾驶电动汽车领域会是一匹黑马，而传统的汽车制造商可能会沦为互联网公司的代工厂，究其原因是因为自动驾驶汽车中很核心的一部分是系统的开发，而这一块是互联网公司的强项，但恰恰是传统汽车制造商的弱项。同理，在无人驾驶飞行汽车领域，互联网公司也将是一匹大黑马。 第三路是无人机制造企业。说到无人机大家可能就会想到大疆，但是大疆主要做的是消费级无人机，市场份额特别大，所以知名度高，但是本文中举的例子是亿航184载客无人机一系列的测试，相信很多人都没听说过这个公司，但是它的融资能力却是惊人的强（小道消息称亿航是在消费级无人机市场做的太差，因此baby无奈只能转去做载客无人机，哈哈哈，不觉明历啊）。当然最主要的一点是无人机制造企业在转向大型载客无人机时，经验相对丰富。 好了，今天就先扯这么多，大家认为哪一路大佬更有机会呢？欢迎大家留言。 6 愿景 小组 小编理工男，建筑底层民工，经济学人铁粉，和小伙伴(经济学人小群不超过8个人）看经济学人到现在已经将近700多天。现有一经济学人大群,如果您也有兴趣，可加入我们学习小组，群规甚严，请三思后而入群，WeChat : foxwulihua |
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